You open the news and see two headlines that seem to fight each other. One says Dubai has just logged the second highest nine-month sales value in its history. The other says home prices have fallen year on year for the first time in five and a half years. If you are deciding whether to buy, hold or wait, which one do you believe?
Both can be true because transaction activity and residential prices measure different aspects of the market. This briefing reviews the latest reported transaction figures, places them alongside August residential price data, and explains what buyers should check before making a purchase decision.
The Headline: Nine Months of Near Record Activity
According to Emirates 24|7, citing Dubai Land Department (DLD) data, Dubai recorded Dh574.12 billion in real estate transactions during the first nine months of 2026. This represents approximately 62.6% of the Dh917 billion officially reported for the whole of 2025. The total includes sales, mortgage registrations and gift transfers.
Reported real estate transaction value, including sales, mortgage registrations and gift transfers.
What is inside the total
September on its own
Emirates 24|7 reported September sales of Dh29.66 billion and total transaction value of Dh50.78 billion, including mortgage registrations and gift transfers. The total transaction value was approximately 20.4% below the January–September monthly average of Dh63.79 billion. Sales alone were approximately 29.6% below their corresponding monthly average of Dh42.16 billion.
The Counterpoint: Prices Slip for the First Time Since 2021
Cavendish Maxwell data reported by Khaleej Times shows average residential prices at Dh1,636 per square foot in August 2026. That is down 1.7% year on year, the first annual fall in 5.5 years, and 1.3% lower over three months. Residential sales in August were Dh23.4 billion across about 10,900 homes, 14% fewer than July, and off-plan made up roughly 75% of them.
Average residential prices were reported at AED 1,636 per square foot. Citywide averages do not determine an individual property's value.
Why this does not contradict the record volumes
A year-on-year decline in average residential sales prices can coexist with substantial transaction activity. Average prices and transaction totals measure different things, and changes in the mix of properties sold can also affect the average.
Cavendish Maxwell attributes the softening to fewer new launches, regional uncertainty and normalising buyer activity, while saying underlying demand remains solid.
ValuStrat’s August 2026 update put its residential capital value index at 218.8 points, down 0.2% month on month and 3.1% year on year. Villa capital values recorded their first annual decline since 2021. ValuStrat’s capital value index and Cavendish Maxwell’s average residential sales price measure use different methodologies, so their percentage changes should not be treated as interchangeable.
Off-Plan Sells the Units, Ready Stock Carries the Value
Based on the September sales breakdown published by Emirates 24|7, off-plan accounted for approximately 65.4% of transactions and 46.0% of sales value, or Dh13.63 billion. Ready property accounted for approximately 34.6% of transactions and 54.0% of sales value, or Dh16.03 billion. Transactions classified as residential units represented approximately 85.2% of the sales count. These percentages are calculated from the published breakdown, whose transaction counts differ slightly from the headline totals.
of reported sales transactions by count, compared with 46.0% of sales value, based on the published breakdown.
What it means for general investors
Off-plan accounted for most reported sales transactions by count, while ready property accounted for the larger share of sales value. Transaction counts do not measure unique buyers, and the ready-property category includes assets such as land and buildings, which can influence total values. For an off-plan purchase, assess the payment plan, expected completion date and competing supply in the community alongside the launch price.
A practical example
Before reserving an off-plan unit, compare its price per square foot with recent registered sales of similar ready properties in the same community. If the launch price is higher, assess whether differences in location, specifications, amenities and payment terms justify the premium rather than assuming future appreciation will close the gap.
Interest Rates: The Base Rate Moves to 3.9%
Although this decision predates the briefing period, it remains relevant to financing conditions. The Central Bank of the UAE confirmed a 25-basis-point increase in the Base Rate applicable to its Overnight Deposit Facility, from 3.65% to 3.9%, effective 17 September 2026. The decision followed the US Federal Reserve’s increase in the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances. The UAE Base Rate is a monetary policy benchmark, not the mortgage rate charged to individual borrowers.
The monetary policy benchmark increased by 25 basis points. Individual mortgage rates depend on the lender and loan terms.
Where the Money Went
Emirates 24|7, citing DLD data, lists the leading areas by sales value for January–September 2026 as Business Bay (above Dh20 billion), Airport City (Dh17.72 billion), Al Yalayis 1 (Dh16.09 billion), Palm Deira (Dh12.98 billion) and Palm Jumeirah (Dh11.61 billion). This ranking concerns sales value, rather than the combined value of sales, mortgage registrations and gift transfers.
A practical example
High transaction value shows where capital is flowing, not where returns are best. A busy area can also be an area with heavy new supply. Before following the crowd into Business Bay or Airport City, compare the number of units under construction there with the number sold.
What to Watch Next
Whether October’s total transaction value moves closer to the January–September monthly average, after September came in approximately 20.4% below it.
The next price index reading, to see if the August annual decline repeats or reverses.
The Fed's next move, which the UAE base rate is likely to follow.
Handover timing in the communities where most off-plan sales are concentrated.
Conclusion: Your Next Step
The latest reports show substantial transaction activity, softer residential price indicators for August and a higher UAE monetary policy benchmark following September’s rate increase. The implications for an individual purchase depend on the property, its location and the buyer’s financing terms.
Your concrete next step: Before making a purchase decision, review the last 90 days of registered sales for comparable properties in your chosen community. If you are using a mortgage, test affordability at an interest rate 0.5 percentage points above your current quote, including fees, insurance and service charges. This illustrates sensitivity to higher borrowing costs; it does not assess every investment risk.
This briefing is informational and is not financial advice. Verify figures with official DLD data before acting.
Sources
Dubai real estate transactions hit Dh574 billion in nine months (Emirates 24|7) https://www.emirates247.com/business/dubai-real-estate-transactions-hit-dh574-billion-in-nine-months-second-highest-sales-value-in-market-history/6205
Dubai real estate sales surpass $103.47 billion in second-highest nine-month level on record (Economy Middle East) https://economymiddleeast.com/news/dubai-real-estate-sales-surpass-103-47-billion-in-second-highest-nine-month-level-on-record/
Dubai Real Estate Market Report: September 2026 Data (Truhauz) https://truhauz.com/dubai-real-estate-market-report-september-2026/
Dubai home prices fall for first time in 5.5 years as market enters mature cycle (Khaleej Times) https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/property/dubai-real-estate-home-house-prices-fall-first-time-in-over-5-years
Dubai property boom over? August 2026 data shows prices cooling (The Week) https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/09/08/dubai-property-boom-over-august-2026-data-shows-prices-cooling.html
CBUAE raises the Base Rate by 25 basis points (Central Bank of the UAE) https://centralbank.ae/media/dv3bo3ed/cbuae-raises-the-base-rate-by-25-basis-points-en.pdf
Dubai real estate market records new historic milestone with transactions exceeding AED917 billion in 2025 (Government of Dubai) https://dmo.dof.gov.ae/en/news-and-publications/latest-press-releases/dubai-s-real-estate-market-records-new-historic-milestone-with-transactions-exceeding-aed917-billion-usd-2497-bn-in-2025/
Dubai property market resilience, August 2026 (ValuStrat) https://valustrat.com/pages/dubai-property-market-resilience-august-2026-economy-middle-east
Sales recorded 349.83 billion dirhams: AED 523.44 billion in Dubai real estate transactions in 8 months (Voice of Emirates) https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/business/business-reports/2026/09/01/sales-recorded-349-83-billion-dirhams-aed-523-44-billion-in-dubai-real-estate-transactions-in-8-months/
